Traders on decentralized predictions marketplace Polymarket expect polls immediately after the second U.S. presidential debate to show Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris as the winner.
Polymarket traders bet on crypto and practically any topic with an outcome, including whether Elon Musk will join crypto-friendly Donald Trump’s cabinet. While the overall prediction leans toward Trump winning the election, the majority see post-debate polls favoring Harris.
Trump vs. Harris for second debate
Polymarket bets currently show Harris being declared the debate’s winner at 75%. Meanwhile, bets for former president Donald Trump have fallen from 38% on Sept. 6 to around 25% as of Sept. 9.
The second U.S. presidential debate is expected to air on ABC on Tuesday, September 10, 2024. During the first debate in July, then-Democratic candidate Joe Biden had a disastrous outing. The sitting U.S. president went on to withdraw from the race a few weeks later, endorsing his VP Kamala Harris.
Both campaigns have expressed confidence in outperforming the other. However, traders on Polymarket believe post-debate polls will show Harris as victorious against Trump.
How will the bet resolve?
According to Polymarket, the bet on who wins the debate will resolve in favor of the Democratic candidate if the Ipsos/538 opinion poll shows Kamala Harris as the winner.
If the poll shows Trump as the winner, the bet will resolve likewise. A 50-50 resolution will occur if the Ipsos/538 poll indicates an equal result.
Traders have wagered so far around $150,000 on the outcome.
Polymarket predicts Trump to win election
Ahead of the debate, many polls suggests a close race for the upcoming election.
For instance, The New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris and Trump are neck in neck in the battle for the November 4, 2024 vote. The picture is also similar on Polymarket, where traders currently have their money on Trump at 52% compared to 47% for Harris.
On Polymarket, the total bet on who wins stands at over $844 million.
