Iran’s leaders must be wondering if they’ve “poked the bear” (i.e., Donald Trump) for the last time. Their scheme to assassinate a U.S. presidential candidate, Trump, can be considered an act or war — so says President Joe Biden. Iran’s belligerence has gone unchecked for too long. The Iranian swamp needs to be drained, and Trump might just do it.
Attorney General Merrick Garland announced last Friday, “There are few actors in the world that pose as grave a threat to the national security of the United States as does Iran. The Justice Department has charged an asset of the Iranian regime who was tasked by the regime to direct a network of criminal associates to further Iran’s assassination plots against its targets, including President-elect Donald Trump.”
FBI Director Christopher Wray added, “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — a designated foreign terrorist organization — has been conspiring with criminals and hitmen to target and gun down Americans [including Trump] on U.S. soil and that simply won’t be tolerated.” Right, it shouldn’t be tolerated. But what’s the appropriate response?
The Washington Post reports that Biden “directed the National Security Council to warn Iran’s government to stop plotting against Trump and former U.S. officials, adding that the United States would view any attempts on Trump’s life as an act of war.”
And Biden’s not alone. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) complained last July that, along with trying to assassinate Trump, Iran hacked into and stole information from the campaign. “I think this is an act of war against the American people,” Graham said. “When you find a foreign power trying to kill a nominee of a major party, you should do something about it.”
But it’s doubtful the outgoing Biden will do anything, except perhaps impose a few more ineffective sanctions. The president has spent the last four years trying to appease Iran, including by not enforcing existing oil export sanctions against the country. A new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates Iran’s oil revenue hit $144 billion in Biden’s first three years, plus another $34 billion in 2024. Iran uses that money to make weapons and fund its terrorist proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, including the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.
So, a serious U.S. response to Iran’s assassination scheme and other mischief will likely have to come from Trump, and he’s responded by saying, “An attack on a former President is a Death Wish for the attacker.”
Iran’s in a tough spot. Israel has diminished its military-threat potential with impunity and successfully blocks Iranian retaliatory rocket attacks. And Iran’s Hamas and Hezbollah proxies and leaders have been decimated.
In short, Iran is in no position economically or militarily to fight a war, even as it commits acts of war against other countries. That’s why it’s the right time for Trump, along with our allies, to demand a regime change, backed by a strong but unstipulated military threat.
Trump’s done something similar with respect to the U.S. hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza. Trump has simply said those hostages better be returned by the time he takes office or Hamas “will pay a very big price.” No one knows what the “big price” would be, but there are lots of possibilities.
Granted, Iran’s rulers would very likely refuse to step down, whereupon Trump could take more decisive action, including coordinating with Israel, taking whatever steps are necessary to neutralize Iranian belligerence, including its development of a nuclear weapon.
Would some other countries and the United Nations decry these actions? Probably, but the long-suffering Iranian people would love the change.
And there could be corollary benefits. Russia and China have vastly stepped up their cyberattacks and election interference. Russia reportedly was behind a plot to plant bombs on cargo planes headed to the U.S. Officials said it was “sheer luck” that one of the bombs caught fire on the ground exposing the threat. Both Russia and China are testing the West’s resolve to oppose their expansionist efforts. Holding Iran accountable for its actions would have a deterring effect on other bad actors.
There will be no peace in the Middle East until the Iranian menace is addressed. Trump has long campaigned on draining the Washington swamp. He still needs to do that. But he, perhaps with the aid or Europe and Israel, also needs to drain the swamp in Iran.
Merrill Matthews is a public policy and political analyst and the co-author of “On the Edge: America Faces the Entitlements Cliff.” Follow him on X@MerrillMatthews
