BTC price climbed above $47,661 on Feb. 9, with the much-anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving event now 70 days away, more bullish action could follow.
Vital on-chain data trends suggest Bitcoin miners and strategic investors shifting focus to the forthcoming halving event could be behind the recent BTC price upswing.
Can the bulls capitalize on the momentum boost to reclaim $50,000?
Bitcoin miners have cut down selling pressure by 25%
On Feb. 9, Bitcoin price hit a daily timeframe peak of $47,661. Per Coinmarketcap, this is the highest the pioneer cryptocurrency has traded since the market euphoria that heralded the BTC ETF approval verdict on Jan. 11.
The recent price uptick is being attributed to deepening institutional adoption and Bitcoin miners and making bullish bets ahead of the next halving event.
Now, 70 days away, Bitcoin’s 4th halving event will occur when the number of blocks reaches 840,000 in April 2024, cutting reward issues to miners from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block mined.
Historically, miners on proof-of-work networks like Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) often make strategic efforts to accumulate reserves when a halving date draws close. This phenomenon appears to have reared its head on the Bitcoin network in recent weeks.
CryptoQuant’s miner-to-exchange chart monitors the daily count of transactions involving miners depositing coins into exchanges and trading platforms, essentially serving as a proxy for measuring real-time changes in the miners’ selling pressure.
The chart below shows that transactions from recognized miners to exchange-hosted wallets have declined by 25%, from 278 to 208, between Feb. 2 and Feb. 8.
When miners cut down on their selling pressure as observed above, it impacts the asset price positively. Firstly, it reduces the number of newly mined tokens, diluting market supply. And more importantly, it signals the miners’ confidence in the asset’s short-term price prospects. Both of these factors could influence other stakeholders to take on a bullish disposition as well.
A closer look at the chart shows that the miners have reduced the spate of exchange deposits since Oct. 24, when it reached a monthly peak of 489, miner-to-exchange transactions.
Unsurprisingly, this steady decline in the miners’ selling trend between October 2023 to February 2024 has coincided with a double-digit Bitcoin price rally to a peak of around $48,000.
With this bullish pattern still in play, Bitcoin holders can expect further price upswing in the next 70 days as the halving approaches.
BTC price prediction: Breaking $48,500 could catalyze larger gains
The on-chain data trends analyzed above show that the looming halving event has put BTC price on an upward trajectory. In terms of short-term price action, Bitcoin faces significant resistance at the $48,500 territory.
IntoTheBlock’s global in/out of the money (GIOM) data groups all existing BTC holders by their historical entry prices. Currently, it shows that 717,040 addresses acquired 193,130 BTC at the maximum price of $48,335.
Considering that this is the largest cluster of holders above the 20% boundary of the current prices, BTC could face a significant challenge once price approaches $48,500.
However, a decisive breakout above that key resistance level could open the doors to a milestone upswing above $50,000 for the first time since 2021.
Conversely, the bears could negate this optimistic prediction if Bitcoin price dips below $40,000. However, as seen above, the 3.06 million addresses acquired 1.4 million BTC at a minimum price of $42,672.
To avoid slipping into losses, those investors could make frantic purchases to cover their positions, and possibly, trigger an instant rebound.