War is not an academic exercise. You either fight to win or you fight to die.
And Ukraine is at war with the enemies of the free world: Russia and its accomplices Belarus, Iran and North Korea. Somehow, four of the most disgusting dictatorships on Earth are terrorizing Ukrainians and destroying a free country in the middle of Europe while the West watches from the sidelines.
Kyiv has spent more than a decade defending itself against Russian aggression. Moscow cannot win the war. It lacks the resources and manpower required to conquer all of Ukraine, let alone to control it. Likewise, Kyiv, cursed by geography, cannot end the war without security guarantees that make it nearly impossible for Russia to invade Ukraine again further down the road.
Though Kyiv’s development of nuclear weapons is one option, the best way to deter further Russian aggression while maintaining Kyiv’s positive relationship with the West would be through NATO membership.
Ukraine is our ally. Russia is our enemy. It is morally correct, long-overdue and in the West’s interest to invite the biggest and most battle-hardened army in Europe to join NATO, immediately impose a no-fly zone above Ukrainian land west of the Dnieper River and deploy soldiers and air defense systems to enforce that commitment.
If a single Russian, Iranian or North Korean projectile launched from Belarus or Russia hits Ukrainian territory west of the Dnieper River, respond with overwhelming force — so the Russians get the message.
This will deter Russia while alleviating pressure on Ukraine and the West in at least two ways.
First, by protecting the Ukrainian people and infrastructure. As western Ukraine becomes safer and more stable, this would likely reduce the number of refugees headed to Europe and increase the number of Ukrainians returning home.
Not only would this save the West money by not having to rebuild said infrastructure after the war, but it would also unlock the Ukrainian economy by allowing Kyiv to reopen its airports in western Ukraine.
Second, this security guarantee would also strengthen Ukraine’s hand on the battlefield, and therefore, at the negotiating table.
It would do so logistically by enabling the West to manufacture weapons and train Ukrainian soldiers in western Ukraine rather than in Europe and America. It will help militarily by allowing Ukrainian border guards and soldiers to withdraw from the periphery and deploy toward the frontline in Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts where they are needed.
The West must speak the language of the enemy. Putin is afraid of consequences, not rhetoric. He is emboldened by indecision and inaction, not by proactivity. His appetite for escalation and risk-taking is related to achieving or avoiding potential outcomes, not based on adherence to principles.
If the West ups the ante by inviting Ukraine to join NATO and imposing a no-fly zone over western Ukraine, Russia will either buckle with indecision, as it did when Evgeny Prighozin marched toward Moscow, or do nothing, as when we crossed all the other so-called “red lines” drawn by Putin.
Despite the Russian government and its mouthpieces threatening to nuke the West, Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in a conflict over Ukraine. First, the annexation of Ukrainian territory — mostly depopulated and destroyed villages in eastern Ukraine — is not existential for the Russian Federation. Second, a nuclear exchange would be the end of Putin, who seeks self-preservation above all else.
It is more likely that Russia would stand down in western Ukraine, just as it stood down when the U.S. won the Battle of Conoco Fields against the Wagner Group in 2018 or when Turkey shot a Russian fighter jet out of the sky in Syria.
After all, it is in Russia’s interest to avoid a direct military confrontation with NATO — which would give the Russian army the beating of a lifetime.
The West is, in fact, the most peaceful, prosperous and progressive civilization — and the most powerful military alliance — in the history of the world.
Instead of acting like it, our leaders cede the initiative to Russia, which is little more than a mafia with a gas station and nuclear weapons masquerading as a country. And like all mafias, Moscow will cash in all of its IOUs and activate every client and partner in its quest for self-preservation.
From Hamas giving Putin a birthday gift by invading Israel on Oct. 7 to recently released Russian arms dealer Victor Bout arming the Houthis in Yemen, birds of a feather always flock together.
They don’t care about their own people, let alone for the West’s “concern” or “condemnation.” Result-oriented, they only care about avoiding and achieving potential outcomes. And their top priority is remaining in power.
Russian ally Alexander Lukashenko, who has governed Belarus with an iron fist as Europe’s longest-lasting dictator by stealing elections, killing hundreds of his own civilians and imprisoning thousands more since 1994, is still in power.
Russian ally Kim Jong Un, who inherited the world’s most totalitarian dictatorship from his father, reportedly killed his brother and enslaved his own starving people while building a nuclear weapons program to threaten and extort his neighbors, is still in power.
Russian ally Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is still supreme leader of the world’s biggest state sponsor of terrorism whose so-called “morality police” kills women like Mahsa Amini for not wearing hijabs properly and who executed at least 834 Iranians by hanging them from cranes in 2023.
Russian ally Bashar Al-Assad, who massacred more than 230,224 civilians, displaced up to 14 million Syrians, conducted at least 217 chemical weapons attacks, and destroyed up to 50 percent of all critical infrastructure in Syria, is still in power.
Russian ally Nicolas Maduro, a narco-trafficker who lost multiple elections, oversaw the Venezuelan economy’s implosion and had more than 7.7 million people (a quarter of Venezuela’s population) flee from his country during peacetime, is still in power.
Russia and its allies value self-preservation and the survival of their respective regimes above everything else. They are driven by fear of ending up captured, tried and executed by the people they terrorized for decades as did Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Or worse, murdered on the street in an act of vigilante justice like Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
The Russian-led “Axis of Evil” is unfortunately winning. It will continue sticking together for the foreseeable future. The West must do the same and more because watching from the sidelines as the world’s most repressive regimes destroy Ukraine is pathetic.
Sometimes, leadership is about defeating your enemies. Other times, it’s about helping your friends in their time of need. So do both by inviting Ukraine to join NATO and winning the peace in Europe.
George Monastiriakos is a part-time professor of law at the University of Ottawa. Read his works at www.Monastiriakos.com.
